Компания Boeing прогнозирует рост мирового спроса на пилотов
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http://www.aex.ru/news/2013/8/30/109915/
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30 августа, AEX.RU – По прогнозам компании Boeing, в ближайшие двадцать лет в связи с растущим спросом на новые самолеты гражданской авиации дополнительно понадобится более миллиона пилотов и авиатехников. Также ожидается общемировой рост спроса на пилотов и в некоторых странах - на авиатехников. Об этом рассказали в пресс-службе компании.
Сегодня в рамках открытия программы летной подготовки пилотов Boeing 787 в учебном центре Boeing Flight Services в Майами компания Boeing представила ежегодный прогноз рынка авиационного персонала «2013 Pilot and Technician Outlook».
Согласно прогнозу, к 2032 году авиалиниям во всем мире дополнительно потребуются:
- 498 000 пилотов гражданских судов
- 556 000 авиатехников по обслуживанию гражданских судов
«Острая потребность в квалифицированном авиационном персонале – актуальная проблема во всем мире, - отметила Шерри Карбари, вице-президент подразделения Boeing Flight Services. – Ключевым фактором в решении кадрового вопроса в нашей отрасли является повышение качества подготовки с применением самых современных технологий для привлечения и удержания молодых специалистов, заинтересованных в авиации».
По сравнению с предыдущими исследованиями, отчет 2013 года прогнозирует значительное увеличение спроса на пилотов во всех регионах, за исключением Европы, где наблюдается небольшой спад по сравнению с прошлогодней оценкой. В целом, спрос обусловлен стабильно растущим количеством поставок авиалайнеров, в частности узкофюзеляжных моделей, и в мировом масштабе составляет около 25 000 новых пилотов в год.
Спрос на авиатехников остается на высоком уровне: ежегодно требуется примерно 28 000 человек...
Прогнозируемый спрос на новых пилотов и авиатехников по регионам мира:
- Азиатско-Тихоокеанский регион – 192 300 пилотов и 215 300 авиатехников
- Европа – 99 700 пилотов и 108 200 авиатехников
- Северная Америка – 85 700 пилотов и 97 900 авиатехников
- Латинская Америка – 48 600 пилотов и 47 600 авиатехников
- Ближний Восток – 40 000 пилотов и 53 100 авиатехников
- Африка – 16 500 пилотов и 15 900 авиатехников
- Россия и страны СНГ – 15 200 пилотов и 18 000 авиатехников
«Проблема нехватки авиационных кадров носит глобальный характер и может быть решена только с помощью инноваций и решений всей отрасли, - заявила Карбари. - Необходимо привлекать больше молодежи в авиацию за счет непрерывного поиска новых способов подготовки пилотов и авиатехников, перехода от традиционных методов обучения к таблицам, электронным книгам, игровым технологиям и трехмерным моделям. Авиация – интересная отрасль, и на нас лежит ответственность за то, чтобы сделать ее привлекательной для молодежи всего мира».
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Pilot shortage looms for airlines
By Charisse Jones, USA TODAY
5:28 p.m. EST January 6, 2013_ http://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/2013/01/06/pilots-shortage-could-start-this-year-analysts-warn/1566088/http://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/2013/01/06/pilots-shortage-could-start-this-year-analysts-warn/1566088/
A wave of retirements and new FAA requirements could make it hard for airlines to find enough pilots, especially if travel picks up.
New rules make it harder to become a co-pilot
U.S. airlines estimated to need about 8,000 new pilots a year
Some U.S. airlines may see a pilot crunch as soon as this year, as thousands of pilots start to retire and new rules requiring extra training and more rest start to kick in, some aviation analysts say.
As the economy slowly improves, potentially increasing the desire by Americans to travel, a wave of pilots is reaching the federally mandated retirement age of 65. They'll be walking out the door just as it gets harder for a new crop of pilots to walk in because of new rules set to begin in August that require co-pilots to have as many flight hours as captains before they can work in a cockpit.
"I think this is going to be much larger and much longer than any we've had before," Kit Darby, an aviation consultant who runs a career information service for pilots, says of a looming shortage. "And the reason it's going to be so much worse this time is we have a combination of things happening at the same time."
If a shortage occurs, some analysts say, large airlines would likely scoop up available candidates. That would leave regional carriers, which operate half of the nation's scheduled flights and often provide the only air service to smaller cities, scrambling.
"The major carriers probably won't see the shortage, if one comes into play, because that's where the better-paying jobs are," says Kent Lovelace, chairman of the aviation program at the University of North Dakota. "The regional airline industry will probably be most affected."
Airlines for America, the trade group for most major U.S. carriers, doesn't foresee a problem looming.
"Long-term projections about pilot hiring are inherently subjective, as they are based on assumptions about airline growth that have often proved to be faulty," says group spokeswoman Victoria Day. "We expect the major commercial airlines will be appropriately staffed and are not expecting any shortage within the next few years."
A global challenge
Roughly 90,000 commercial pilots work now for U.S. carriers, Darby says. He estimates that 8,000 a year will need to be hired to replace those who retire, to accommodate new rules around rest and to keep up with the industry's expected growth.
Finding qualified pilots is a global challenge. A 2012 report from airplane maker Boeing estimated a need for 460,000 new commercial pilots over the next two decades. The report found "a pilot shortage has already arisen in many regions of the world," particularly in Asia, where the gap was causing delays and other flight interruptions.
The Asia-Pacific region will need 185,600 new pilots, the most of any region, the report calculated. North America will need 69,000.
In the U.S., the retirement age for pilots was raised from 60 to 65 in 2007. The first large-scale departures are starting, with the numbers expected to escalate in the next few years.
Delta Air Lines anticipates having to eventually make hundreds of new hires. "We're not hiring pilots now, but we do expect, based on retirements, that we'll need 3,500 over the next decade, and we continue to monitor staffing levels," says Delta spokeswoman Betsy Talton.
Some analysts say airlines will have a challenge finding new, qualified pilots once the FAA rule takes effect requiring commercial co-pilots to have 1,500 hours of flying experience — the same as captains.
Safety measures
The change was prompted by a demand for new safety measures after the crash of a Colgan Air jet that killed 50 people near Buffalo, N.Y., on Feb. 12, 2009. Previously, co-pilots needed only 250 hours.
"It has moved the goal post," says Roger Cohen, president of the Regional Airline Association. "You've just tripled the number of hours they'll need to be able to even interview for a job with an airline, regardless of the size."
New rules that require more rest will boost the need for more pilots, some analysts say. For instance, the minimum rest period before a pilot's flight duty would increase from eight hours to 10, including the ability to get eight hours of sleep in a row.
Cohen says many of the factors that can lead to a shortage are in place, though it's unclear when it will occur. And he warns it would be a problem for the entire industry, not just regional carriers. But if airlines have difficulty filling cockpits, he says, it's likely smaller cities that will see the sharpest dips in service. If there aren't enough pilots available, he says, "You have to pick and choose what routes you're going to fly."
Other forces also are at work: Military pilots are staying longer in the service. Young people are less interested in a field that has seen concessions in pay and benefits. And foreign airlines increasingly are wooing pilots to meet growing travel demand overseas.
"Foreign flying is going to continue to be a potential threat to the U.S. pilot supply," the University of North Dakota's Lovelace says.
By Charisse Jones, USA TODAY
5:28 p.m. EST January 6, 2013_ http://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/2013/01/06/pilots-shortage-could-start-this-year-analysts-warn/1566088/http://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/2013/01/06/pilots-shortage-could-start-this-year-analysts-warn/1566088/
A wave of retirements and new FAA requirements could make it hard for airlines to find enough pilots, especially if travel picks up.
New rules make it harder to become a co-pilot
U.S. airlines estimated to need about 8,000 new pilots a year
Some U.S. airlines may see a pilot crunch as soon as this year, as thousands of pilots start to retire and new rules requiring extra training and more rest start to kick in, some aviation analysts say.
As the economy slowly improves, potentially increasing the desire by Americans to travel, a wave of pilots is reaching the federally mandated retirement age of 65. They'll be walking out the door just as it gets harder for a new crop of pilots to walk in because of new rules set to begin in August that require co-pilots to have as many flight hours as captains before they can work in a cockpit.
"I think this is going to be much larger and much longer than any we've had before," Kit Darby, an aviation consultant who runs a career information service for pilots, says of a looming shortage. "And the reason it's going to be so much worse this time is we have a combination of things happening at the same time."
If a shortage occurs, some analysts say, large airlines would likely scoop up available candidates. That would leave regional carriers, which operate half of the nation's scheduled flights and often provide the only air service to smaller cities, scrambling.
"The major carriers probably won't see the shortage, if one comes into play, because that's where the better-paying jobs are," says Kent Lovelace, chairman of the aviation program at the University of North Dakota. "The regional airline industry will probably be most affected."
Airlines for America, the trade group for most major U.S. carriers, doesn't foresee a problem looming.
"Long-term projections about pilot hiring are inherently subjective, as they are based on assumptions about airline growth that have often proved to be faulty," says group spokeswoman Victoria Day. "We expect the major commercial airlines will be appropriately staffed and are not expecting any shortage within the next few years."
A global challenge
Roughly 90,000 commercial pilots work now for U.S. carriers, Darby says. He estimates that 8,000 a year will need to be hired to replace those who retire, to accommodate new rules around rest and to keep up with the industry's expected growth.
Finding qualified pilots is a global challenge. A 2012 report from airplane maker Boeing estimated a need for 460,000 new commercial pilots over the next two decades. The report found "a pilot shortage has already arisen in many regions of the world," particularly in Asia, where the gap was causing delays and other flight interruptions.
The Asia-Pacific region will need 185,600 new pilots, the most of any region, the report calculated. North America will need 69,000.
In the U.S., the retirement age for pilots was raised from 60 to 65 in 2007. The first large-scale departures are starting, with the numbers expected to escalate in the next few years.
Delta Air Lines anticipates having to eventually make hundreds of new hires. "We're not hiring pilots now, but we do expect, based on retirements, that we'll need 3,500 over the next decade, and we continue to monitor staffing levels," says Delta spokeswoman Betsy Talton.
Some analysts say airlines will have a challenge finding new, qualified pilots once the FAA rule takes effect requiring commercial co-pilots to have 1,500 hours of flying experience — the same as captains.
Safety measures
The change was prompted by a demand for new safety measures after the crash of a Colgan Air jet that killed 50 people near Buffalo, N.Y., on Feb. 12, 2009. Previously, co-pilots needed only 250 hours.
"It has moved the goal post," says Roger Cohen, president of the Regional Airline Association. "You've just tripled the number of hours they'll need to be able to even interview for a job with an airline, regardless of the size."
New rules that require more rest will boost the need for more pilots, some analysts say. For instance, the minimum rest period before a pilot's flight duty would increase from eight hours to 10, including the ability to get eight hours of sleep in a row.
Cohen says many of the factors that can lead to a shortage are in place, though it's unclear when it will occur. And he warns it would be a problem for the entire industry, not just regional carriers. But if airlines have difficulty filling cockpits, he says, it's likely smaller cities that will see the sharpest dips in service. If there aren't enough pilots available, he says, "You have to pick and choose what routes you're going to fly."
Other forces also are at work: Military pilots are staying longer in the service. Young people are less interested in a field that has seen concessions in pay and benefits. And foreign airlines increasingly are wooing pilots to meet growing travel demand overseas.
"Foreign flying is going to continue to be a potential threat to the U.S. pilot supply," the University of North Dakota's Lovelace says.
===================================================================================================================
19 November 2013 Last updated at 00:03 GMT_ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24901430
Dubai Air Show: Are we facing a pilot shortage?
By Russell Hotten and Jonathan Frewin
The growth plans of the Gulf airlines continue to amaze and surprise - but Etihad and Emirates are not the only carriers ordering new aircraft at the Dubai Air Show.
Airlines from the Asia-Pacific region have their own expansion ambitions. The order backlog at Boeing and Airbus keeps growing.
But who is going to be flying all these aircraft?
Warnings that global aviation could face a pilot shortage made little impact when the industry was in recession and staff were being laid off.
Now that air travel is recovering, questions about who will be sitting at the controls are back on the agenda.
"The urgent demand for competent aviation personnel is a global issue that is here now and is very real," said Sherry Carbary, vice-president of Boeing Flight Services.
Airbus's latest forecast is that air traffic will grow 4.7% annually over the next 20 years. Boeing predicts 5% annual growth. That translates into a demand for between 29,220 and 35,280 new aircraft.
It means, according to a report by Boeing, that about 498,000 new commercial airline pilots will be needed over the next two decades.
Europe and the US will need a big share of the new pilots, although much depends on when and how fast these regions emerge from their economic troubles.
The real near-term growth is coming from emerging economies and relatively immature markets.
Sunday's news that Dubai's budget carrier Flydubai is buying 100 Boeing 737 aircraft underlines how airlines are exploiting previously underdeveloped travel markets.
'Unprecedented'
Nick Leontidis, president of civil products and training operations at CAE, one of the world's biggest providers of simulators and training programmes, said that other market trends were also contributing to pilot demand.
Senior pilots recruited during the aviation expansion in the 1980s and early 1990s will be approaching retirement just as demand generated from emerging economies and the expected US recovery moves up a gear.
New US regulations will require pilots to take longer rest periods
Meanwhile, over the past decade pilot training and recruitment fell in the US and Europe - indeed, the recession led to redundancies and lay-offs. Mr Leontidis sees no reason why many of these pilots should not resume their careers.
"So long as they have got the necessary medical certificate, they could be brought back into action," he said. But it would not be enough to meet a demand that he describes as "unprecedented".
Meanwhile, tougher US regulations will require more flying experience for new pilots and longer rest periods.
It adds to the strain on the global pool of talent. There have even been reports of pilot-poaching, with airlines targeted by bigger rivals offering better terms and conditions.
Out-of-work
In the UK, at the pilots' union Balpa, head of career services Wendy Pursey said talk of a shortage was premature.
The Gulf carriers and other fast-expanding airlines were having to recruit mainly top-tier pilots - the captains - to meet their needs, she said. But further down the career ladder, there were still plenty of pilots looking for jobs.
Etihad's chief operations officer Richard Hill says his airline doesn't need to advertise, word gets around.
She said Balpa had about 500 out-of-work pilots on its books. Some might move abroad, but the expat life is neither practical nor appealing for everyone.
For Ms Pursey, if there is to be a shortage of trained pilots, it will be felt by the regional airlines as experienced staff are snapped up by the bigger and more prestigious carriers.
Even so, the major carriers are discovering they cannot rely on expats to fill their vacancies.
Abu Dhabi-based Etihad, which on Sunday unveiled orders and options for 199 aircraft, is also buying $200m (£124m) worth of simulators and training tools for its pilots' academy.
Etihad is investing heavily in a cadet programme, taking on about 50 trainees each year. The majority of recruits are UAE nationals.
"The demand is fairly large," said Richard Hill, Etihad's chief operations officer. "We don't have to advertise. Word gets round in the community."
At any one time there might be 5,000 applications from experienced or potential pilots on Etihad's books, he said.
Continue reading the main story
“Start Quote_I've been in the business for 32 years, and there has been an impending pilot shortage every year of those 32.”
Having built an aviation industry, the UAE is keen that its airlines bring local nationals through the ranks. It's part of strengthening the local economy.
Also, expats tend to eventually move on. "Most of the UAE nationals join Etihad because they want to stay and develop their career here," Mr Hill said.
Etihad even holds roadshows in schools to tempt local children into the profession. "Until five or six years ago there was not much of an option for Emiratis to become pilots, other than to join the airforce," he said.
Importantly, local nationals get free training. Foreigners must agree to repay their training costs over five years, even if they leave the airline.
With a rich source of potential and willing trainees, Mr Hill is not too concerned about a pilot shortage. "I've been in the business for 32 years, and there has been an impending pilot shortage every year of those 32," he said.
But he acknowledges that if the aviation market in Europe and the US picked up rapidly, it could have an impact on Etihad's recruitment plans as experienced expats returned or the pool of potential overseas recruits dried up.
But, then, that's why the airline, and its Gulf rivals, have started intensive training programmes. "So that we can, if necessary, increase the numbers if we were to find it difficult to recruit from the rest of the world," he said.
And with Etihad receiving far more applications than there are vacancies, he's not losing sleep over the matter just yet.
Dubai Air Show: Are we facing a pilot shortage?
By Russell Hotten and Jonathan Frewin
The growth plans of the Gulf airlines continue to amaze and surprise - but Etihad and Emirates are not the only carriers ordering new aircraft at the Dubai Air Show.
Airlines from the Asia-Pacific region have their own expansion ambitions. The order backlog at Boeing and Airbus keeps growing.
But who is going to be flying all these aircraft?
Warnings that global aviation could face a pilot shortage made little impact when the industry was in recession and staff were being laid off.
Now that air travel is recovering, questions about who will be sitting at the controls are back on the agenda.
"The urgent demand for competent aviation personnel is a global issue that is here now and is very real," said Sherry Carbary, vice-president of Boeing Flight Services.
Airbus's latest forecast is that air traffic will grow 4.7% annually over the next 20 years. Boeing predicts 5% annual growth. That translates into a demand for between 29,220 and 35,280 new aircraft.
It means, according to a report by Boeing, that about 498,000 new commercial airline pilots will be needed over the next two decades.
Europe and the US will need a big share of the new pilots, although much depends on when and how fast these regions emerge from their economic troubles.
The real near-term growth is coming from emerging economies and relatively immature markets.
Sunday's news that Dubai's budget carrier Flydubai is buying 100 Boeing 737 aircraft underlines how airlines are exploiting previously underdeveloped travel markets.
'Unprecedented'
Nick Leontidis, president of civil products and training operations at CAE, one of the world's biggest providers of simulators and training programmes, said that other market trends were also contributing to pilot demand.
Senior pilots recruited during the aviation expansion in the 1980s and early 1990s will be approaching retirement just as demand generated from emerging economies and the expected US recovery moves up a gear.
New US regulations will require pilots to take longer rest periods
Meanwhile, over the past decade pilot training and recruitment fell in the US and Europe - indeed, the recession led to redundancies and lay-offs. Mr Leontidis sees no reason why many of these pilots should not resume their careers.
"So long as they have got the necessary medical certificate, they could be brought back into action," he said. But it would not be enough to meet a demand that he describes as "unprecedented".
Meanwhile, tougher US regulations will require more flying experience for new pilots and longer rest periods.
It adds to the strain on the global pool of talent. There have even been reports of pilot-poaching, with airlines targeted by bigger rivals offering better terms and conditions.
Out-of-work
In the UK, at the pilots' union Balpa, head of career services Wendy Pursey said talk of a shortage was premature.
The Gulf carriers and other fast-expanding airlines were having to recruit mainly top-tier pilots - the captains - to meet their needs, she said. But further down the career ladder, there were still plenty of pilots looking for jobs.
Etihad's chief operations officer Richard Hill says his airline doesn't need to advertise, word gets around.
She said Balpa had about 500 out-of-work pilots on its books. Some might move abroad, but the expat life is neither practical nor appealing for everyone.
For Ms Pursey, if there is to be a shortage of trained pilots, it will be felt by the regional airlines as experienced staff are snapped up by the bigger and more prestigious carriers.
Even so, the major carriers are discovering they cannot rely on expats to fill their vacancies.
Abu Dhabi-based Etihad, which on Sunday unveiled orders and options for 199 aircraft, is also buying $200m (£124m) worth of simulators and training tools for its pilots' academy.
Etihad is investing heavily in a cadet programme, taking on about 50 trainees each year. The majority of recruits are UAE nationals.
"The demand is fairly large," said Richard Hill, Etihad's chief operations officer. "We don't have to advertise. Word gets round in the community."
At any one time there might be 5,000 applications from experienced or potential pilots on Etihad's books, he said.
Continue reading the main story
“Start Quote_I've been in the business for 32 years, and there has been an impending pilot shortage every year of those 32.”
Having built an aviation industry, the UAE is keen that its airlines bring local nationals through the ranks. It's part of strengthening the local economy.
Also, expats tend to eventually move on. "Most of the UAE nationals join Etihad because they want to stay and develop their career here," Mr Hill said.
Etihad even holds roadshows in schools to tempt local children into the profession. "Until five or six years ago there was not much of an option for Emiratis to become pilots, other than to join the airforce," he said.
Importantly, local nationals get free training. Foreigners must agree to repay their training costs over five years, even if they leave the airline.
With a rich source of potential and willing trainees, Mr Hill is not too concerned about a pilot shortage. "I've been in the business for 32 years, and there has been an impending pilot shortage every year of those 32," he said.
But he acknowledges that if the aviation market in Europe and the US picked up rapidly, it could have an impact on Etihad's recruitment plans as experienced expats returned or the pool of potential overseas recruits dried up.
But, then, that's why the airline, and its Gulf rivals, have started intensive training programmes. "So that we can, if necessary, increase the numbers if we were to find it difficult to recruit from the rest of the world," he said.
And with Etihad receiving far more applications than there are vacancies, he's not losing sleep over the matter just yet.
